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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/18 11:22

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 2 cents higher at midsession; soybean futures are 2 to 4 
cents higher; wheat futures are mixed.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market has been mixed with the Dow down 30 points at midday. 
The U.S. Dollar Index is 6 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. 
Energies are higher with crude up .28. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
lower and hogs higher. Precious metals are mixed.

   CORN:

   Corn futures are 2 cents higher at midday with a mixed 7-cent range 
overnight up to midday. There has been light follow-through buying after the 
nice turnaround on Thursday and Friday last week following the negative monthly 
WASDE numbers that came out last Tuesday which gave us pressure into Wednesday. 
Farmer selling on strength during harvest is expected to limit the upside. 
Ethanol margins remain good with higher energy prices; crude oil was up another 
$1 this morning after moving above $81 last week. Export news needs to remain 
good to support the rally. The trade is expecting harvest progress to be 53% to 
58% on the USDA Crop Progress report Monday afternoon. The storm system that 
came across the country last week was friendly, but likely caused some very 
light yield losses and delays. This week looks open for good progress. On the 
December contract, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.29 
with the $5.06 3/4 low this past week first support then the September low at 
$4.97.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are up 2 to 4 cents at midday after mixed to mostly lower 
action overnight. Meal is mixed at midday with bean oil 60 points higher. 
Short-term chart momentum was up after the close last week, so it was no 
surprise to see some chart buying Monday morning, but it seems to be running 
out of steam. The futures were already lower in the big picture for 2021 going 
into the October USDA WASDE report last Tuesday, so the trade acts like the 
slightly negative news was priced in. The market will want to see good demand 
news from now to the November WASDE if we are going to confirm some type of 
harvest low. Beans dropped roughly $3 from the June high to the low on 
Wednesday with follow-through after the negative USDA report. A 40% correction 
would be up around $13 on nearby, with a one-third correction closer to $12.80. 
That area may be an upside chart target for technical longs without any real 
friendly weather info out of South America. Fundamentally, we are two-thirds 
through harvest and the yields seen, along with USDA number, has the market not 
thinking a rally back up near the 2021 highs makes sense without some bigger 
weather issue in South America. On the November soybean chart, support is the 
recent low at $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the $12.48 20-day moving average.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are mixed at midday across the three exchanges. Wheat was 
mostly firmer last week following the friendly USDA numbers. KC was a nickel 
higher; Minneapolis was up over 20 cents with new highs for the move and 
Chicago was unchanged on the week. The light dollar strength this morning and 
on Friday has given wheat some outside market resistance to higher prices. 
Plains' weather looks to push planting forward with progress listed at 60% 
complete last Monday, which is in line with the average pace. The wet weather 
this past week was good for the crop even if some of the last third of the 
winter wheat could be planted slightly late. Minneapolis continues to have the 
friendly fundamentals; when that is priced in will remain a big question for 
wheat the rest of 2021. KC December chart support is at the 20-day moving 
average at 7.29 with resistance at the Oct. 4 high of $7.64.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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